When Covid first hit, many Kiwis expected house prices to fall. Instead, rock-bottom interest rates and government support sent the market into overdrive. Nationally, values jumped around 40% in the 18 months to late 2021.Reuters
Since then, the story has flipped. As the Reserve Bank lifted the Official Cash Rate aggressively between 2021 and 2023 to fight inflation, mortgage rates followed. Prices have dropped back from their peaks, and in many areas sit roughly 15–20% below late-2021 levels.Reuter
From our broker’s chair, this “new normal” feels very different to the pre-Covid decade. The market is no longer moving in one direction. Some months are up a little, some down a little, and overall values are tracking broadly sideways.RNZ+1
For buyers, that means less fear of missing out and more time to think. For existing homeowners, it means accepting that rapid equity gains were the exception, not the rule. The focus now is on sustainable borrowing: choosing a loan structure that works if rates move, and keeping a decent buffer in the budget.
As brokers, we’re spending less time talking about “how high prices might go” and more time on “how resilient your home loan will be over the next five to ten years”.
